A note on COP28
At the start of a new year we wanted to take a moment to reflect on COP28, which took place in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from 30th Nov to 13th Dec 2023. The aim was to limit and prepare for climate change. Although it was agreed (for the first time) on the need to "transition away from fossil fuels", the deal isn't legally binding and no timescales are specified. Ed Gemmell, Leader of the Climate Party, provides his take on the Conference below.
“Your average village idiot would know making the CEO of one of the World’s biggest oil and gas companies the President of COP28 was a recipe for disaster on the scale of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
COP28, the United Nations most recent jamboree in Dubai was always going to end in tears. The idea of hosting the World’s pre-eminent environmental conference in one of the World’s most prolific petrostates was a preposterous idea from the start. Then, add to the already toxic mix, the appointment of Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of ADNOC (the UAE national oil company) plus 2500 of his oil and gas executive brethren and another 80,000 or so other party goers and you can be assured of abject failure.
30 years ago, in 1994 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change came into effect with its signatories agreeing to prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system and to ensure the "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [human-caused] interference with the climate system".
There have now been 28 COPs since the first in Berlin in 1995.
There have been a few modest successes from the COP process such as the Paris Agreement and Kyoto Protocol but we have not ‘stabilised greenhouse gas conditions in the atmosphere’. In fact it is only recently that we have even stabilised the amount by which we ‘increase’ those gases each year. The promised land dreamt of 1994 – a World where no further GHGs are added to what already exists in the atmosphere – seems further away today than it was 30 years ago.
COP28’s “stunning” achievement (according to some experts) this week was a non-binding statement encouraging the World to transition “away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, … so as to achieve net zero by 2050”. Pathetically inadequate when it comes to saving our future. Such weak language does, though, mean there is still a commercial window of opportunity for a nation to grab first mover advantage and lead the clean industrial revolution with all the financial opportunities that presents. Britain could be that first mover!
But where has the COP process gone wrong?
The answer is simple we have largely ignored the issue, got on with our day to day lives and allowed political and business leaders to continue feathering their own nests at the expense of our atmosphere, mother nature and, in the case of the UK, our national interest.
“But” I hear you say indignantly “back in 1994 we introduced the COP process to bring together the World’s leaders on an annual basis with the specific task of saving the World, surely that was what was needed?”
Sadly any fool can see this has not worked! Since 1994 the annual rate of emissions has actually increased by nearly 60%. We may have agreed to prevent an increase of those dangerous gases in the atmosphere we have actually done the opposite.
The COP process has failed! And COP28, like all the others, is no exception. Why?
Sadly, our emissions have sky rocketed along with the number of people attending COP which has gone up by 2000% since the first one in 1995. Todays bloated COP28 with its 80,000 or so attendees is out of control. Ridiculous! Hoteliers and restaurateurs maybe minting it but this annual trade show is now failing us all – and in the background all that can be heard is the rhythmic nailing down of our collective coffin.
Influence of fossil fuel companies continues to grow. Poachers attending the meetings of the gamekeepers. Reportedly 2,500 fossil fuel execs were in Dubai beavering away to help their companies maintain their huge revenues from new oil and gas drilling.
In the case of COP28 the fossil fuel companies appear to have had a stranglehold on proceedings with one of their brethren hosting the party. Al Jaber did well for a day or two until the veil slipped and he seemed to suggest the science did not support a phase out of fossil fuels in order to achieve net zero.
In an utterly ironic twist the presidency of COP29 will remain with a petrostate as Azerbaijan will take over after all sorts of last minute behind the scenes shenanigans. How can we possibly get international cooperation in place to save the World if it is so difficult to even agree on where to hold the party?
The COP process has utterly failed, it has failed the World, it has failed us.
Overhaul it or abandon it!
The UN must: slash the number of attendees by 95%, kick the fossil fuel companies off the organising committee, pick the host name out of a hat and, most importantly, create a real legally binding mechanism to fix targets for essential carbon emissions reductions and then monitor and enforce this.
The UK must: largely ignore the COP process while at the same time grabbing the huge commercial opportunity that comes with solving climate change and make it our national mission to lead the clean industrial revolution with a 2030 zero carbon target whilst ensuring prosperity for British people in the 2030s and 2040s.”
To appreciate the farcical nature of the Conference and their ambiguous conclusion 'we united, we acted, we delivered', here is a link to the COP's website https://www.cop28.com/en/. Their thick layer of greenwash did little to hide the harsh reality of climate change and what it can do to the planet.